The Future of Energy Scarcity That Worries Me

Long before the technological singularity arrives, Earth may already be struggling to bear the weight of the global economic system. We might only be able to maintain our current lifestyle because we live in more developed countries at the upper tiers of the supply chain. But digging into the underlying signs reveals an increasingly concerning reality.

In 2021, I feel that many technologies have reached a high level of maturity; at the same time, however, I worry that humanity will not have enough energy to sustain our civilization in the future.

Climate

Global warming is likely the primary driver behind the collapse of the entire supply chain system. Earth’s average temperature has already risen by 1.1°C. Scientists consider 1.5°C to be a critical tipping point—once crossed, we head toward irreversible outcomes.

These irreversible outcomes include melting icebergs, rising sea levels, species extinctions, disrupted food supply chains, and climates no longer suitable for human habitation. This chain reaction will ultimately be reflected directly in our economic system.

Carbon dioxide is the main culprit behind global warming. According to statistics, global CO₂ emissions were around 17 billion tons in 1970, but reached roughly 35 billion tons by 2016.

This chart gives an overview of the breakdown of greenhouse gas emissions by sector:

Power generation and manufacturing rank in the top two, while livestock farming also accounts for a remarkably high share. Raising livestock consumes massive resources, and their waste produces greenhouse gases.

Even though 1.5°C is the tipping point, I don’t feel the world is truly moving toward cutting carbon emissions. If we wait until we cross that threshold to fix the problem, we might already be standing past the point of no return.

Energy

Looking back at how electricity has been generated from the Industrial Revolution through recent decades—coal, oil, and natural gas—these are all natural resources formed over millions of years that we are rapidly exhausting, and all of them are more or less responsible for greenhouse gas emissions.

Natural resources will eventually run out, and we have reached a critical juncture. If our generation cannot find viable renewable energy solutions, the next generation—and the one after that—will be forced into a world where people fight one another for basic resources.

Although there is indeed a trend toward generating electricity with green energy (wind, hydro, solar), alongside anti-nuclear sentiment, a look at Taiwan’s current power generation mix reveals an extreme reliance on thermal power:

Thermal power accounts for 84.00%; nuclear power accounts for 10.12%; renewable energy accounts for 4.65%; pumped-storage hydro accounts for 1.23%.

Source: Wikipedia

If we were to lose 84% of the power supply, our civilization and living standards would instantly drop by an entire tier. No one would accept rolling blackouts at night where you can’t even turn on the lights. Coal and oil are cheap, but they pollute the environment. Unless renewable energy can simultaneously achieve high conversion efficiency and low cost, it simply cannot completely replace traditional power generation.

Bill Gates also noted on GatesNotes that the disruption caused by COVID-19 did not solve humanity’s climate change issues; instead, it served as a stark reminder that doing nothing will not make the situation any better.

Yet Gates also offered an optimistic path forward:

• Drive science and innovation
• Ensure solutions work for poor countries as well
• Take action right now

I will discuss this further at the end of the post.

Rising Raw Material Prices

• According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) food price index, prices have trended significantly upward compared to 2020.
• Semiconductor shortages/price hikes: With the global chip shortage, I just read today that Raspberry Pi decided to raise its price by $10.
• Rising lumber prices: This could subsequently drive up housing costs.

These might seem like isolated events, but beneath the surface lies a shared message: the stability of global supply chains has begun to crack. Most electronics rely on extraordinarily intricate supply chains, meaning consumer tech will inevitably be impacted.

Looking at these warning signs, I envision three possible scenarios:

1. Humanity discovers new renewable energy sources that can sustain current economic operations, allowing us to preserve our current lifestyle and technology.
2. We cross the tipping point, forcing a civilizational downgrade where daily electricity consumption is strictly rationed.
3. We all pack up and fly to Mars.

The fact that we can still talk about the metaverse, VR, blockchain, crypto, iPhones, and various consumer electronics today at least means current resources are still sufficient to keep the economic machine running. Yet I worry about the arrival of an energy crisis.

Setting aside the third option—which seems unfeasible for now—I pessimistically believe the world is heading toward the second scenario with no turning back, even though a sliver of hope in me still wishes governments worldwide could unite around the first.

If we unfortunately slide into the second scenario, we might need to accelerate the legalization of euthanasia so people have a dignified way out once Earth is no longer fit for human life. With an energy supply imbalance and a major civilizational regression, without adequate government interventions, people could easily descend into mutual suspicion and fighting over resources—or worse, outright war. Blockchains, which rely heavily on electricity, would also readily collapse when power becomes a luxury.

What Can I Do?

To be honest, I don’t have a standard answer. But if that day truly arrives:

• Stock up on batteries, so lower-power electronics can at least remain operational.
• Learn farming (?)
• Start watching Primitive Technology videos on YouTube now, so I at least know how to fashion tools from natural materials to survive.
• Buy solar panels, to maintain some power whenever the sun is out.
• Reduce my own electronic waste.

Lastly, buy a few low-power chips (AVR, STM32, 6502, 8051, etc.)—trading raw performance for minimal power consumption so that a single battery can keep a device running for months. In a downgraded civilization, having a working calculator or computer would still be remarkably useful.

About Bill Gates’ Solution

I only realized later that after stepping down from Microsoft, Bill Gates has devoted tremendous effort to tackling climate change (among other global issues), even publishing a book on the subject (How to Avoid a Climate Disaster).

On GatesNotes, you frequently see articles from the Gates Foundation addressing climate change. Regardless of any underlying motivations, the posts provide solid data analysis and insightful content. Honestly, it makes me glad to see that many people in the world are still striving for solutions and leveraging their own resources to make a difference.

In Gates’ framework, we must reach net-zero carbon emissions as soon as possible. This doesn’t mean emitting zero carbon, but rather that the total carbon emitted minus the carbon absorbed must equal zero. Achieving this essentially requires overhauling how every industry operates: generating cleaner energy, cleaner manufacturing, cleaner construction. It sounds like an immensely difficult goal. When an industry is printing money, who wants to listen to you and change their ways?

The future feels exciting, but this string of warning signs leaves me deeply uneasy. As an individual, there is clearly little one can change; perhaps all we can do is watch it unfold and adapt when the time comes.