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This post is translated by ChatGPT and originally written in Mandarin, so there may be some inaccuracies or mistakes.
Before the technological singularity arrives, it seems that Earth may soon be unable to sustain the global economic system. We are able to maintain our current way of life perhaps only because we live in more advanced countries and occupy the upper tiers of the supply chain. However, digging deeper into the underlying signs reveals an increasingly concerning situation.
In 2021, I felt that many technologies had matured significantly, but on the flip side, I fear that humanity may not have enough energy to sustain civilization in the future.
Climate
Global warming is likely the primary cause of the collapse of the entire supply chain system. Currently, the Earth's average temperature has risen by 1.1 degrees, and scientists believe that 1.5 degrees is a critical threshold. Once this limit is surpassed, irreversible consequences will follow.
The so-called irreversible consequences include melting icebergs, rising sea levels, species extinction, disruptions in the food supply chain, and climates no longer suitable for human habitation. These chain reactions will ultimately impact our economic system.
The main culprit behind climate warming is carbon dioxide. According to statistics, carbon dioxide emissions were around 17 billion tons in 1970, but by 2016, they had surged to approximately 35 billion tons.
From this chart, we can roughly understand the proportions of greenhouse gas emissions:
Electricity generation and manufacturing are the top two contributors to emissions, with livestock farming also holding a significant share. Raising livestock requires vast resources, and their waste produces greenhouse gases.
Despite 1.5 degrees being the critical point, I do not see any substantial progress towards reducing carbon emissions. If we wait until we surpass this threshold to address the issues, we may find ourselves standing at a point of no return.
Energy
Reflecting on the methods of power generation from the Industrial Revolution to recent decades—coal, oil, natural gas—these resources have taken millions of years to form and have become significant contributors to greenhouse gas emissions.
Natural resources will eventually be depleted; we have already reached a critical point. If we do not find renewable energy solutions in this era, future generations will be forced to live in a world where resources are constantly fought over.
Although there is indeed a trend towards generating power from green energy sources (wind, hydro, solar), coupled with the anti-nuclear sentiment, if we examine the current energy generation breakdown in Taiwan, we find a heavy reliance on fossil fuels.
Thermal power accounts for 84.00%; nuclear power accounts for 10.12%; renewable energy accounts for 4.65%; pumped storage hydro accounts for 1.23%.
Losing 84% of our power supply would directly downgrade our civilization and living standards. Limiting electricity at night would be unacceptable for anyone. While coal and oil are inexpensive, they pollute the environment. If renewable energy cannot simultaneously achieve excellent conversion rates and affordability, it simply cannot fully replace traditional power generation methods.
Bill Gates also mentioned in GatesNotes that the impact of COVID-19 has not improved climate change issues; rather, it has reminded humanity that doing nothing will not make the situation better.
However, Gates optimistically proposed solutions:
- Promote science and innovation
- Ensure solutions are applicable in poorer nations
- Start taking action now
I will elaborate on this in the conclusion of the article.
Rising Raw Material Prices
- The food index from the United Nations shows a significant upward trend compared to 2020.
- Semiconductor shortages/price hikes: There is a global semiconductor shortage, and just today I saw news that Raspberry Pi decided to raise prices by $10.
- Rising lumber prices: This could potentially impact housing prices as well.
These issues may seem like isolated events, but they all convey a common message: the stability of the supply chain has begun to be compromised. Most electronic products rely on extremely complex supply chains, meaning they will also be affected.
From these warning signs, I envision three possible directions:
- Humanity discovers new renewable energy sources that can sustain current economic operations, allowing us to continue enjoying our present lifestyle and technology.
- We exceed the critical point, forcing humanity to downgrade its civilization, with daily electricity restrictions.
- Everyone migrates to Mars.
As we still discuss the metaverse, VR, blockchain, cryptocurrency, iPhones, and various tech gadgets, it at least indicates that current resources can still support the entire economic system. However, I am concerned about the impending energy crisis.
While the third point currently seems impossible, I pessimistically believe that the world is heading towards the second scenario, yet I hold a glimmer of hope that governments and nations can unite to pursue the first option.
If we tragically move towards the second scenario, we may need to accelerate the push for euthanasia, as it would be easier to depart when Earth is no longer suitable for human habitation. Due to an imbalance in energy supply, civilization would drastically downgrade. If governments fail to respond appropriately, humanity may begin to distrust each other and compete for resources, with the more severe scenario leading to outright war. The blockchain, which heavily relies on electricity, could easily collapse in a situation where electricity becomes extremely scarce.
What Can I Do?
Honestly, I don’t have a definitive answer, but if that day comes, here are some suggestions:
- Stock up on batteries to keep some low-energy electronics functioning.
- Learn to farm (?)
- Start watching some Primitive videos on YouTube, as they can teach you how to make tools and survive using natural materials.
- Buy solar panels to maintain some electrical supply whenever the sun is out.
- Reduce your electronic waste.
Finally, consider purchasing a few low-power chips (AVR, STM32, 6502, 8051, etc.) to exchange performance for lower energy consumption. At least one battery can keep your devices running for months. Having a usable computer during a phase of civilization downgrade could be quite valuable.
About Bill Gates' Solutions
I later discovered that after leaving Microsoft, Bill Gates has been dedicated to addressing climate change issues (among others) and even wrote a book about it, titled How to Avoid a Climate Disaster.
On GatesNotes, you can frequently find articles from the Gates Foundation discussing climate change. Regardless of the motives behind it, the articles provide data analysis and are quite informative. Frankly, I am pleased to see so many people worldwide striving for solutions and using their resources to create change.
In Gates' solutions, we must achieve net-zero carbon emissions as soon as possible. This does not mean that we cannot emit carbon, but rather that the total carbon emitted must equal the carbon absorbed. To reach this goal, we essentially need to rethink how every industry operates: using cleaner energy for power generation, manufacturing, and construction. This sounds like a tremendously difficult goal to achieve. When an industry is thriving, who wants to listen to you and change their methods?
The future is exciting, but this series of warning signs fills me with concern. One person clearly cannot change much; we can only let things unfold and wait for the right moment to adapt.
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