Linear Output vs. Exponential Output

To understand value itself, we first need to understand the simple principles of how our world operates, which can be broadly divided into four major sectors:

• Energy sources for humans: Agriculture, livestock farming
• Energy sources sustaining society: Power generation, coal, natural gas, oil, transportation
• Sustaining industrial progress: Engineering, basic science
• Providing services: Lawyers, financial advisors, advertising, marketing, etc.

Energy and raw materials are critical components that keep the socio-economic engine running. Humans must have food to survive; resources from nature like coal and natural gas sustain modern civilization; and agriculture, animal husbandry, and the food industry are the essentials of human life—the bedrock supporting the entire economic system. However, these two belong to linear output: what you put in is what you get, relying purely on human labor as production value.

What truly brings exponential development to society or civilization is Engineering, which can be extended more broadly into four major fields: Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics, abbreviated as STEM.

These four fields study the essence of how things work. They help us understand the world through science, provide powerful computational tools through mathematics, discover more efficient ways of doing things through engineering, and apply these solutions to reality through technology. Note that technology here does not refer solely to computer science, nor is engineering limited strictly to software engineering.

The invention of the steam engine dramatically reduced the cost of human labor. By boiling water, kinetic energy was converted into mechanical work, sparking the Industrial Revolution and fundamentally changing human lifestyles. This is exponential growth: fundamentally changing how things are done and liberating humans from the abyss of sheer manual labor.

To take another example, the discovery of electricity and the invention of generators enabled humans to accomplish all kinds of tasks using electric power. Refrigerators, microwaves, vacuum cleaners, and air conditioners—these inventions are the driving forces that allow us to live convenient and comfortable lives. Behind each of them are the experiments and ideas of an engineer, or a team of engineers. Today, computers and mobile phones have become daily necessities, and the computational power brought by computers has completely rewritten the way humans live. These are the best proofs of how technology brings exponential growth.

Obviously, if the world were composed solely of financial advisors, various “directors,” advertising, and marketing personnel, society would eventually collapse. They cannot provide what humans need to survive; their way of creating value is manipulating capital.

The game laid out by this capitalist society dictates that once you have money, your best move is to invest in stocks, speculate in crypto, or, if you’re trendy, buy NFTs.

Never forget: human survival relies on energy, followed by securing life’s comforts. If what we do cannot directly or indirectly achieve this, we are merely playing the capital game.

Money itself carries little inherent meaning; only the existence of value holds meaning. Money is merely a tool that facilitates the exchange of value. If capital ultimately does not flow back into society, it is nothing more than a zero-sum game.

I believe society needs more people in STEM fields to make the world a better place and create exponential development, rather than having life goals centered around becoming some manager, consultant, director, marketer, or chasing passive income while providing zero real value.

Today’s society aggressively promotes investing, crypto speculation, and leadership titles, which genuinely worries me. There are already too few engineers; I truly hope these minds don’t waste their time and lives on such pursuits.

In the future, more labor-intensive jobs will be replaced. Just look at the development of Copilot—even entry-level code can now be assisted by AI.

Summary

• Linear output: The foundation that keeps the economic system running.
• Manipulating capital or social systems as output: Most managers and marketers belong to this category of work.
• Exponential output: Systematically solving problems through STEM, thereby saving massive amounts of time and labor costs, and improving the quality of life. Examples include engineers, scientists, and inventors.

If you want to bring progress to society, seek careers or fields with exponential output. Manipulating capital is not something you or I should be prioritizing at this stage. Linear output jobs are the foundation of socioeconomic operations, but they carry a high probability of being replaced by AI in the future.

As more people enter fields with exponential output, more innovations will emerge—electric vehicles, reusable rockets, VR, blockchain, IoT. The emergence of various technologies will continue to transform lifestyles and create positive feedback loops. Human working hours will dwindle, and the day might eventually come when we don’t have to work at all.

Some professions might not neatly fit into these frameworks, but perhaps you can reflect on which category a profession actually falls into: purely labor-driven linear output, capital manipulation, or something of exponential value.

I think Mr. Market put it very well:

The investment with the highest rate of return is investing in yourself. Most rich people in the world became rich first before they started investing.

There are far too many people in management who are just occupying space without doing any real work. They have no real output and rely on manipulating capital to accumulate wealth. Yet value cannot be created out of thin air; the gap can only be made up by exploiting those with linear and exponential output. You could argue that these people are the primary culprits behind societal stagnation.

Regrettably, there are too many people in this world who only want to strike it rich through financial manipulation without creating an ounce of value for the world. If the whole world embraces and promotes this mindset, the end of the world might not be that far off.

Note

When hearing the words “technology” and “engineering,” many people reflexively associate them with computers, coding, and computer science. However, this article is not limited strictly to those domains.