Before the arrival of the technological singularity, it seems that the Earth may soon be unable to sustain the global economic system. Our ability to maintain our current way of life may only be possible because we live in more advanced countries and are part of the upper layers of the supply chain. However, if we carefully examine the various signs behind this, we will find that the situation is becoming increasingly worrisome.
In 2021, I believe that many technologies have already advanced significantly, but on the other hand, I fear that humanity will not have enough energy to sustain civilization.
Climate
Global warming is likely the main cause of the collapse of the entire supply chain system. The average temperature of the Earth has already risen by 1.1 degrees, and scientists consider 1.5 degrees to be a critical threshold. Once this threshold is exceeded, irreversible consequences will follow.
These irreversible consequences include melting ice caps, rising sea levels, extinction of species, disruption of the food supply chain, and an unsuitable climate for human habitation. These chain reactions will ultimately be reflected in the economic system.
The main culprit of climate change is carbon dioxide. According to statistics, carbon dioxide emissions were around 17 billion tons in 1970, and by 2016, it had reached around 35 billion tons.
From this chart, we can roughly understand the proportion of greenhouse gas emissions by various industries:
Electricity generation and manufacturing occupy the top two positions in terms of emissions, and there is also a significant contribution from the livestock industry. Raising livestock requires a large amount of resources, and their waste contributes to greenhouse gas emissions.
Although 1.5 degrees is the critical threshold, I do not believe that the world is making progress in reducing carbon emissions. If we wait until we exceed the critical threshold to address the problem, we may already be standing at the point of no return.
Energy
Looking back at the power generation methods from the Industrial Revolution to recent decades, coal, oil, and natural gas have all been consuming natural resources that took millions of years to form. Moreover, they have all contributed to greenhouse gas emissions to some extent.
The resources from nature will eventually be depleted, and we have already reached a critical point. If we do not find a solution for renewable energy in this era, future generations will be forced to live in a world where resources are constantly being fought over.
Although there is currently a trend of using green energy for power generation (such as wind, hydro, and solar power), along with the anti-nuclear sentiment, if we look at the proportion of Taiwan's current power generation methods, we will find that it still heavily relies on thermal power generation.
Thermal power generation accounts for 84.00%; nuclear power generation accounts for 10.12%; renewable energy accounts for 4.65%; pumped storage hydropower accounts for 1.23%.
Losing 84% of the power supply would directly lead to a downgrade in civilization and living standards. People would not accept living without electricity at night. Coal and oil are cheap, but they cause environmental pollution. If renewable energy cannot meet both the criteria of excellent conversion efficiency and affordability, it is practically impossible to completely replace traditional power generation methods.
Bill Gates also mentioned in GatesNotes that the impact of COVID-19 has not led to improvements in climate change. Instead, it serves as a reminder that doing nothing will not make the situation better.
But Bill Gates also optimistically proposes solutions:
- Promote science and innovation.
- Make solutions applicable to poor countries.
- Start taking action now.
I will explain more about this at the end of the article.
Rising Raw Material Prices
- According to the Food Price Index from the United Nations, there has been a significant increase compared to 2020.
- Semiconductor shortages/price increases: There is a global shortage of semiconductors, and today I just read the news that the Raspberry Pi decided to increase its price by $10 in response to chip shortages.
- Increase in wood prices: This may also affect housing prices.
These incidents may seem independent, but they all imply a message that the stability of the supply chain is starting to be affected. Most electronic products rely on extremely complex supply chains, which means that electronic products will also be affected.
From these warnings, I can imagine three scenarios:
- Humanity finds new renewable energy sources that can sustain the current economic operations, allowing us to continue enjoying our current way of life and technology.
- Exceeding the critical threshold, humanity is forced to downgrade civilization, with daily restrictions on electricity usage.
- Everyone flies to Mars.
Currently, we can still discuss metaverse, VR, blockchain, cryptocurrencies, iPhones, and various consumer electronics products. This at least indicates that the available resources can still sustain the entire economic system. However, I am concerned about the impending energy crisis.
Apart from the fact that the third scenario seems impossible, I pessimistically believe that the world will head towards the second scenario, and it will be irreversible. However, I hold a glimmer of hope that governments and countries can unite and strive towards the first scenario.
If unfortunately, we move towards the second scenario, we may need to accelerate the promotion of euthanasia so that at least when the Earth is no longer suitable for human habitation, we can depart more swiftly. Due to the imbalance in energy supply, a significant downgrade in civilization would occur, and without corresponding measures from the government, humans may start to suspect and compete for resources, or even worse, engage in wars. Blockchain, which heavily relies on electricity, would easily collapse in a situation where electricity becomes extremely scarce.
What Should I Do?
Honestly, I don't have a definitive answer, but if that day truly comes:
- Stock up on batteries to ensure that low-energy electronic devices can still function.
- Learn how to cultivate the land (?).
- Start watching Primitive videos on YouTube now, at least you can use natural materials to create tools for survival.
- Invest in solar panels to maintain some electricity when the sun is shining.
- Reduce electronic waste.
Lastly, acquire a few low-power chips (AVR, STM32, 6502, 8051, etc.) that trade performance for energy efficiency. With just one battery, your device can remain operational for several months. Having a functional computer during the period of civilization downgrade would be quite useful.
About Bill Gates' Solutions
I later discovered that after leaving Microsoft, Bill Gates has been dedicated to addressing climate change issues (among other topics). He even wrote a book on the subject, called How to Avoid a Climate Disaster.
On GatesNotes, you can often find articles from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation discussing climate change. Regardless of the underlying motives, these articles at least provide data analysis and relevant content. Honestly, it makes me feel relieved that there are still many people in the world working hard to seek solutions and utilizing their resources to make a difference.
In Bill Gates' solutions, we must reach zero carbon emissions as early as possible. This does not mean we cannot emit carbon, but rather the total emissions must be balanced by carbon absorption. To achieve this goal, we essentially need to readjust the methods of operation in every industry: using cleaner energy for power generation, manufacturing, and construction. It sounds like an extremely challenging goal. When an industry is making a lot of profit, who would want to change their way of doing things?
The future is exciting, but this series of warnings also fills me with great concern. An individual clearly cannot change much; we can only let things happen and adapt when the time comes.